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Raw Materials "Scourge" Finally Slowed Down

2010/7/27 20:44:00 52

In the first half of 2010, the price rise of raw materials, which was regarded as a "monster" by the industry, finally slowed down step by step under the dual containment of internal and external demand.

Compared with the overall fluctuation of raw materials in the first quarter, the two quarter, except cotton prices, continued to be strong, and the rest of the main varieties dropped to varying degrees.

Even if we do not worry about the short and short sales volume,

spandex

And other chemical fiber products, due to crude oil futures prices dragged down, implanted in a downward path, the road of rebound is slim.

According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 88 billion 878 million US dollars in the first half of 2010, an increase of 22.04% over the same period last year.

Among them, the export of textiles was US $35 billion 652 million, an increase of 32.31% over the previous year, and exports of clothing and accessories reached US $53 billion 226 million, up 16.02% over the same period last year.

The latest statistics of the Bureau of statistics show that in the first half of 2010, China's clothing shoes, shoes and hats, needles textile domestic sales totaled 275 billion 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%.

However,

Internal and external sales

The turning point of the situation took place in the two quarter.

With the European debt crisis exposed, rumours of "two bottom" have been confirmed since the beginning of the year.

Market confidence declined, demand power was insufficient, oil and related raw material prices showed weakness, and the end of textile and apparel replenishment in the US and Europe in May and June, and the arrival of the domestic textile market in the off-season, the comprehensive factors restricted the upward pace of textile raw material prices.

In June, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.1%, which has declined for two consecutive months, indicating that China's economic growth rate is slowing down. On the other hand, the high price of textile raw materials has gradually been pmitted to the lower reaches, which has a negative impact on exports.

At the same time, the central bank announced in late June to restart the remittance and increase.

RMB

After the exchange rate elasticity, the renminbi has always appreciated against the US dollar.

Data show that in July 16th, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.7735; and the day before the implementation of the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 6.8275 in June 21st.

The rapid appreciation of the renminbi has a more negative impact on exports.

If the export situation is not optimistic, it will create further negative effects on the textile materials which have already been stagnant.

Overall, the price of textile raw materials is expected to be weak in the three quarter.

Demand for high-grade cotton is tight, perhaps pushing up the market of cotton and viscose staple fiber, while other varieties will maintain a pattern of easy to fall and difficult to rise.