Traders' Internal Worries And Difficulties' Rebound Of Yarn Price Expectation Disappears.

The cotton planting area in India cotton area has increased significantly, the total output of lint cotton is expected to reach 6 million 700 thousand tons in 2014/15, and the sales of cotton yarn in China's market is "not too hot and cold". The inbound volume has increased since late August and so on. Since the beginning of September, the FOB, CIF and the quotation of Customs quotas of Qingdao, Guangdong, Shanghai and Zhangjiagang have been reduced to varying degrees.

Earlier, due to insufficient supply, individual varieties quoted prices rose 100-200 yuan / ton of Pakistan cotton yarn "U-turn" down, C32S, C40S yarn dropped to 200-300 yuan / ton, and some early quotation is strong, the ICE main contract saw 68 cents / pound traders since September confidence has suddenly weakened, relatively large inventory of C21S, C32S knitting yarn and C40S woven yarn quotation reduced 300-500 yuan / ton, thus speeding up "de stock", the intention of recycling funds obvious.

The CIF quotations of India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and other real estate cotton yarn also loosened and slipped overall, and the decline of low count yarn was higher than that of combed yarn and high spun yarn.

A trader said that on September 8-10, India, Qingdao, Weifang, Zibo and Jiangsu Changzhou and other places India big factory C32S A+ yarn, C32S B yarn CIF quoted price approximately 3.10-3.13 dollar / kilogram, 3-3.05 dollar / kilogram, but C32S and C21S Vietnam brand yarn quoted price concentrates in 3.06-3.10 dollar / kilogram, the 2.82-2.85 dollar / kilogram, Pakistan Pakistan gauze, the gauze price quotation mainly concentrates in the US dollar / kilogram, the US dollar / kilogram, compared to the middle and late 8 month to reduce US dollar / kilogram, moreover Vietnam and Indonesia equal number of cotton yarn quotation has gradually with the India big factory yarn, while the Pakistan, Thailand and so on cotton price quotation is more and more "dragged behind".

　　对于进口棉纱价格“跌跌不休”的原因，业内分析原因集中在：1、2014/15年度美棉产量因天气几近完美而不断调增，印度棉区则是面积、产量“双丰收”，全球供需差距拉大，再加上创历史新高的期末库存，ICE期货、外棉远月合约现货报价均大幅下挫，在ICE主力跌破65美分后，EMOT M级美棉报价仅72-73美分/磅(12/1/2月船期)，对原料成本至少下调5美分/磅以上的预期使纱价不得不应声下滑，9月10日中国主港印度棉S-6的CIF报价虽然仍高达81.2-81.5美分/磅，但清关S-6的人民币报价仅16200-16300元/吨;2、中国市场对进口棉纱的需求踩“急刹车”，询盘、签约热情迅速降温，特别是对印度纱、巴纱和越南纱9/10月份船货的下单积极性出现较大范围的回落，主要原因是随棉纺织企业、贸易商对9、10月份国内棉花现货价大幅下跌的预期增强，而8月份以来低支纱的产销形势要好于高支纱

、精梳纱，利润情况也全面回暖，中小棉纺厂的开机率逐渐恢复，山东、江苏、河南、河北等地小纱厂复工率达到50%以上，对C40S以下棉纱的供货量全面回升;3、据统计，截止9月中旬，青岛、广州、张家港、上海、宁波、天津等港口保税或已清关外纱的数量约8.2万吨，较8月中旬至少增长0.5万吨以上，而且仍有大量的东南亚、中亚棉纱及土耳其、墨西哥和非洲气流纺纱正源源不断地运抵中国主港，预计9、10月份外纱库存压力将继续上升，其中9月下旬港口外纱数量或突破9万吨，与之形成鲜明对比的是保税外纱和已清关印巴、印尼、越南等棉纱出货非常缓慢，个别高支品种甚至开始滞销，进口商、中间商的恐慌情绪明显上升，虽未形成较大规模的抛货降价行为，但棉纱市场可以用“风声鹤唳、草木皆兵”来形容。

Although international and domestic

Market futures and spot prices remain stable and even rebound, but most of India and Pakistan and Southeast Asian cotton mills and exporters generally believe that the drop in cotton yarn prices is very limited. Especially when India yarn increases its minimum purchase price of 2014/15 seed in the textile sector, it is more obvious than the US cotton and West African cotton.

On the 9-10 th of September, the CIF quotations of S-6 SM1-5/32 "and" S-6 SM1-1/8 "arrived at 1/2/3 months from a large international cotton trader, respectively, were 74.20-74.25 cents / pound, 73.60-73.75 cents / pound, only higher than the lowest sales value 0.75-1.75 cents / pound, indicating that the decline of India cotton has been close to"

"But the difference between September and S-6 spot in India is still 8-9 cents / pound.

Some traders said that if buyers specify S-6 in Gujarat, they need to increase their price by 1 cents / pound on the basis of quotation.

In addition, 2012 and 2013 China's imports of India's cotton yarn accounted for more than 50% of India's cotton yarn exports. However, since 2014, the share of India yarn in the Chinese market has been declining. Turkey, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Thailand and even Africa have spun up the market share of India and Pakistan cotton yarn. The India cotton mill has vigorously opened up markets in Europe, America, East Asia and Africa. Most of the cotton mills are in a state of balance, and some large, stable and timely cotton spinning orders are even in early November.

5-10 September, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong,

In other places, A+ grade India and Indonesia (higher cotton quality and poor stability of product quality) the RMB quoted price of C21S, C32S and C40S yarn is concentrated at 21000-21200 yuan / ton, 23500-23800 yuan / ton, 24500-24800 yuan / ton, C21S yarn falls 100-200 yuan / ton, and the surface price difference of cotton yarn with the same number is about 300-500 yuan / ton, but because of the existence of net settlement and LC90 days, the competitiveness of imported cotton yarn is still strong.

Some traders said that the purchase of yarn in Vietnam, Indonesia and Uzbekistan is just like "gambling". Sometimes the yarn quality is very good, reaching A+, and the strength, CV value and other indexes are higher than that of India yarn and domestic cotton mill. Sometimes the cotton yarn can not be used at all, the strength is not enough, the neps are too much or the 100 meter strong head rate is seriously exceeded. Most of the cotton mills apply for third party notarization inspection, so that there are more cases of arbitration and claim.

In recent days, market rumors have come to reduce the impact of low grade yarn on Chinese small and medium textile enterprises and traders. The departments concerned or increase restrictions on the import of cotton yarns, do not rule out a certain period of time not to allow customs clearance, increase import tariffs of cotton yarn, and even adopt import quotas, such as imported cotton, and so on, to help small and medium-sized cotton mills and cloth factories to increase the starting rate and go back to the right track of production and marketing.