Investment Guide: Is It Possible To Achieve "Seven Turnover" In The Market This Year?

In the A share capital market, there has always been a saying that "five poor, six, and seven must turn over".

With the coming of June and July, is it possible to achieve the "seven turn ups" in the market this year? If realized, what industry and field investment opportunities will A share "turn over"? For this reason, analysts from 6 brokerages have published their viewpoints and made judgments on the market trend in the second half of this year.

"The market's expectations for liquidity in July are mainly due to two factors, one is the seasonal easing after the end of the season, and the second is the expected slowdown in financial deleveraging."

In Zhang Yusheng's view, the market's expectations for liquidity in July are mainly due to two factors, one is the seasonal easing after the end of the season, and the other is the right one.

The expectation of deleveraging is slowing down.

"We think these two factors are worth discussing."

According to the historical situation, there is no stable seasonal easing rule after July.

Liquidity tends to be consistent with the overall monetary policy of the year.

At the same time, from the perspective of monetary policy in the medium term, the tone of "moderate and neutral" has not changed at the beginning of the year. Even if liquidity easing occurs, it will only return to a more stable state.

From the recent official statements, the future financial leverage rate will continue.

"Therefore, we believe that liquidity expectations in July should not be too optimistic. We are still more cautious in judging the index. We expect that structural opportunities in the market will still be stronger than exponential opportunities."

Zhang Yusheng said.

From the perspective of industry allocation, Zhang Yusheng suggested that the two main lines should be postponed.

It is recommended to use the leading industry of the value industry as the base of the distribution, including finance, consumer electronics and retail.

Two, it is recommended to consider the early layout of some of the currently expected to be revised plate.

Two main lines can be considered: the first is the valuation and performance mismatch of cyclical products, with a focus on the continuous production of the capacity and the expected profitability of the nonferrous metals, chemicals and paper industries. The second is the export chain. It is expected that the external demand will continue in the second half of the year, which will help the export chain continue to warm up.

At the end of the season, the liquidity of central banks will be slowed down. The opportunity may be in the second half of the three or four quarter.

At the end of the season, the liquidity crisis of the central bank is over, and the central bank's stability or drainage has slowed down. The financial leveraging has entered a substantive stage of supervision, and the test of market liquidity is still very large. "The opportunity may be in the second half of the three or four quarter or turn around."

"Stability is the main keynote". Once the three quarter interest rate action has shaken the foundation of economic stability, it may also ease the central bank's monetary policy in the short term. After the completion of financial self-regulation and supervision, there will be rules for rectification.

From the perspective of industry configuration, Chen Jie suggested that the selection be higher.

"Value leaders" such as banks, automobiles and real estate; from the valuation, profitability, cash and bonus perspective, a comprehensive evaluation of "two" industries with higher cost performance has airports and highways.

At the same time, the aviation and new energy vehicles with low economic recovery and low allocation are still "cost-effective".

From the perspective of long-term structural allocation, it is suggested that we should focus on white appliances, high-end liquor and medicine.

In addition, it is suggested that we should pay attention to four directions: import substitution, globalization of manufacturing industry, upgrading of mass consumption and service industry.

"Under the background of deleveraging and strict regulation, market risk preference will decrease and market differentiation will continue.

Future investment ideas still need safety as the first principle.

In the second half of 2017, the market remained on the trend of turbulence, and it was difficult to form a big trend on the whole.

Under the background of deleveraging and strict regulation, market risk preference will decrease and market differentiation will continue.

Investment ideas in the future still need to take safety as the first principle, advance steadily on the basis of value and participate in thematic investment appropriately.

In Zhu Zhiyong's view, in the first half of 2017, the market continued the pattern of strong, weak and weak from the whole.

The market is basically stable, but the differentiation is serious.

"The future market will be dominated by stability. It is expected that the GDP will decline in the second half of the year, but the annual GDP growth rate will remain at around 6.5%, basically showing a trend of low level.

But in the short term, it is expected that the second half of the year will be faced with a relatively relaxed early stage. The market liquidity should not be too pessimistic. After the early release of the risk, the stability of the future market will be the main factor, and the action and downlink space will be limited.

Overall, Zhu Zhiyong believes that the growth rate of listed companies has shown signs of steady growth.

"In the market environment with low risk preference, the recovery of stable growth rate is an optimistic phenomenon, which is conducive to the stability of the market."

Zhu Zhiyong put forward three main lines of investment: 1, undervalued safety varieties.

After the sharp rise of blue chips in the early stage, the focus of the market will gradually shift to the second-line varieties that have not yet been excavated.

2, the strategic allocation of small and medium-sized enterprises.

From bottom to top, there is a company with a higher margin of safety.

3, thematic investment can be appropriately involved.

Such as state-owned enterprise reform, civil military integration, Xiong an new area and so on.

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