Analysis Of The Reasons Why PTA Is Down Again In A Week

PTA reproduced a surprising trend. Last week, the main contract of PTA was transferred to a limit from the beginning of the week, and the bull market was plunging. In just a week, the capital came into play again, and the PTA1909 contract was once again showing a high attitude. Why is it rising? Xiaobian and everyone together explore one or two.

Market rumors:

The price of PTA09 contracts rose sharply today, and the market news mainly focused on the reduction of contract volume in a mainstream factory or in 8-9 months. So, on this basis, the power of rumours is getting stronger and stronger, so is it necessary to reduce the volume of contracts? Is production to be overhauled?

Another source said: PTA a mainstream factory is only asking about polyester factory (customer) 8-9 months to reduce the contract, because considering the polyester factory reduction plan is too much, so gather the opinions of polyester factory.

To sum up, in the 8-9 month, whether the PTA device will be overhauled, the supply will be reduced, and the contract volume will be reduced.

(above only market rumors, for reference only!)

A brief analysis of the fundamentals:

The supply and demand side of PTA remained good in July.

In terms of PTA, the market supply is relatively stable. At present, Fuhai has entered the maintenance state of the plant. It is expected to resume operation in mid and late 7. The remaining maintenance devices are only repaired in the middle of the Yizheng chemical fiber line project, and the Hon bond line 1 is scheduled to be overhauled near the end of July. There has been no definite maintenance time for the Hengli Petrochemical 1 line.

Polyester perspective: last week, pet factories continued to release the news of production reduction, involving 3 million 316 thousand tons of repair capacity. At present, Huarun, new Feng Ming, Tiansheng and other devices have entered the production reduction ranks, the operating rate decreased from 90.72% to 88.67%, down 2.05%.

According to long Zhong information measurement, according to the above PTA device maintenance (including expected constant force July overhaul), the output of PTA in July is about 3 million 710 thousand tons, and the polyester production reduction in the lower reaches is estimated. In July, the output of polyester is 4 million 300 thousand tons, according to the demand of 0.855, the demand is 3 million 676 thousand and 500 tons. Coupled with other requirements of 120 thousand tons, then PTA7 month is undoubtedly showing the status of the library. (not considering import and export)

Of course, if Hengli Petrochemical has not been overhauled in July, the supply and demand pattern of PTA will show a slight accumulation in July, which will have little difference from the pattern of supply and demand in June.

Macroeconomic easing:

According to the Ministry of Commerce, the US government said it would exempt 110 kinds of Chinese products from medical equipment to key capacitors, such as high tariffs, which relieved some US companies that had said these tariffs hurt their profits. (source: Ministry of Commerce)

Fujian textile and apparel unit quickly raised its price limit.

Fujian Financial Supervision Bureau will speed up the Fujian provincial capital market promotion guidance. Support qualified textile and footwear enterprises to accelerate the listing and financing, refinancing, and guide the listed companies to carry out mergers and reorganization. At the same time, we should promote the role of provincial industrial equity investment funds and their sub funds, Quanzhou M & a funds and other government investment funds to support more conditional cities and districts, set up government led M & a funds, attract famous private equity funds from both inside and outside the province to participate in the investment and financing docking of Fujian textile and footwear industry, and promote the integration, merger and reorganization of textile footwear and listed companies and upstream and downstream enterprises. (source: Securities Times)

Raw material PX is affected by the temporary shutdown of Saudi Arabia's 700 thousand ton plant. The price is rising and the cost side supports well. As of July 10th, the current base difference of the PTA period was larger than that of the 500 yuan. The price of the stocks rose or reduced the difference of the basis. The polyester stocks in the lower reaches were generally low, though the production and marketing were light in recent days, but the stocks increased only slightly. PTA liquidity is already a fact, but the news of polyester reduction is also there. We should pay close attention to the trend of macroscopical trend when we have a short game and reasonable operation.